Macro Factors Mixed, SHFE Aluminum Maintains Fluctuating Trend in Short Term [SMM Aluminum Morning Brief]

SMM September 9:

Futures side, during the previous trading day's night session, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2510 contract opened at 20,695 yuan/mt, reached a high of 20,740 yuan/mt, a low of 20,695 yuan/mt, and closed at 20,725 yuan/mt, up 0.05% from the previous close. LME aluminum opened at $2,609.5/mt, reached a high of $2,625/mt, a low of $2,600.5/mt, and closed at $2,609.5/mt, up 0.27% from the previous close.

Currently, the aluminum market is influenced by mixed factors on both the macro front and fundamentals side, with aluminum prices maintaining a fluctuating trend in the short term. From overseas policies and economic data, the EU is reportedly considering new sanctions against Russia targeting banks and oil trade, and EU officials will discuss the possibility of joint US-EU action with US officials this week; a New York Fed monthly survey showed consumers' short-term inflation expectations rose slightly in August, while job-seeking confidence deteriorated sharply. On the domestic policy front, Vice Minister of Commerce Yan Dong stated at a press conference on the 8th that the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 negotiations have been fully completed, and China will maintain communication with ASEAN to actively advance the signing process and promote the formal signing of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 protocol by the end of the year. Fundamentals side, on September 8, aluminum ingot inventory in Guangdong was 192,000 mt, Wuxi was 200,000 mt, and Gongyi was 83,000 mt, with total inventory across the three locations at 475,000 mt, an increase of 10,500 mt from the previous trading day; for domestic aluminum billet inventory in two locations on September 8, Guangdong aluminum billet inventory was 61,000 mt, Wuxi aluminum billet inventory was 28,000 mt, totaling 89,000 mt, a decrease of 2,000 mt from the previous period. Overall, the macro environment remains supportive; fundamentals side, downstream demand is marginally improving, the proportion of liquid aluminum is increasing, casting ingot volume is decreasing, but the turning point for aluminum ingot inventory has not yet arrived, actual demand has not shown significant improvement, and downstream enterprises have limited room for cost increases. Aluminum prices are expected to remain under pressure above 20,900-21,000 yuan/mt, but with interest rate cut expectations and peak season expectations still present, aluminum prices are expected to find some support below. Subsequent aluminum prices still need to await the realization of the peak consumption season.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]